The 2021 Oscar races are heating up. New contenders have popped up. Actors, films, and filmmakers who were on the outside looking in have now surged forward and can easily earn a nomination. Early frontrunners have either solidified or wilted. To say the least, the latest developments in the Oscar races have left me fascinated and intrigued - I just had to share them with you. Without further ado, I'll list the new contenders, and the old and dilapidated.

A couple of interesting developments before we get to the bigger stuff. Best Editing has become a tighter race as of late. Tenet is surging upwards to be a part of the five nominees, Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 have both increased their odds and are now more crowded at the top, and Mank and The Father have dropped a bit. They're still holding onto their 3 and 4 spots as of now, but Tenet, News of the World, and Judas and the Black Messiah are all now rising towards their spots, gunning for them. Not far behind are Sound of Metal, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, and Da 5 Bloods. Currently, they're on the outside looking in, but anything could happen between now and the official announcement. With the release of Judas and the Black Messiah imminent, it's no surprise its Oscar prospects are increasing in likelihood. Notably, Best Editing has been said by experts to be tied in with Best Picture, be it a win or a nomination.

As for Best Costume Design, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has shot ahead as the frontrunner. Mank, previously being the frontrunner, has lost its foothold at the top of that race, for now. Emma., the Jane Austen adaptation, and a period piece, has burst into the top five at the #3 spot right now. News of the World has entered into the top 5 at this point, and the live-action remake of Mulan has lost some steam as of late. What has been a surprise of late are the recent odds boosts of The United States vs. Billie Holiday and The Personal History of David Copperfield both being tied as the films to be the next to be bumped in, if Mulan is kicked out. This race has been interesting as I predicted Emma. would be the winner of this category when in all actuality, it wasn't even in the top 5 at the time. It has now soared into the top 3, and could, in all likelihood, steal the win away from favorites Mank and Ma Rainey. Clearly, some massive campaigning has taken place recently for the film and its distributor.

This race was all but wrapped up several weeks ago, but lately I'm not so sure anymore. After seeing Leslie Odom Jr.'s fantastic performance in One Night in Miami, it would come as no surprise to me seeing him not only gain a nomination, but to grab the win here. However, what has shaken up this race seems to be Netflix's campaign strategy for the other nominees. Yes, Odom Jr. remains to be the frontrunner. That much is clear. But, Netflix had three Trial of the Chicago 7 actors in there for a good while. Now, two have dropped out of the top 5. This is significant because it appears Chadwick Boseman's supporting performance in Da 5 Bloods is now in the top 5. If you're unaware, this is another Netflix film, and perhaps Netflix is now seeing that they have a greater shot at his performance gaining a nomination rather than multiple for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Additionally, Paul Raci for Sound of Metal has gained some steam after the Critics' Circle Awards across the country and Daniel Kaluuya's performance in Judas and the Black Messiah has shot up into the top 3 with the upcoming release of the film. This race looks entirely different now from when Netflix and Trial of the Chicago 7 were dominating this category just weeks ago.

This race fascinates me in a number of ways. Firstly, Amanda Seyfried in Mank had been the frontrunner for as long as predictions for this race started. But then, the tide turned once word of Olivia Colman's performance in The Father came out. She appears to be the new frontrunner as of right now. Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman, Yuh Jung Youn in Minari, and Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy have been the other three for the race's entirety. Now that the critics awards have come to light, Maria Bakalova's campaign for an Oscar nomination in this category is not just a pipe dream anymore. She has blasted off into the #5 spot, taking down Glenn Close, for now. Many have joked that Borat Subsequent Moviefilm receiving an Oscar nominations for acting could be a serious possibility, but now it's becoming a reality.

While the Best Actor race largely remains unchanged, the Best Actress race has just been upended but a couple latecomers. Zendaya in Malcolm and Marie gives a powerful and emotional performance in the film based on early critical reception. You may have also heard that Carey Mulligan's multi-faceted and highly courageous performance in Promising Young Woman has taken this race by storm as well. She has slid up to the #4 spot, while Zendaya has quietly crept up into the #5 spot. These actresses have effectively dethroned Andra Day of The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. Andra Day had all but sealed up her nomination until she had her day ruined, whereas Sophia Loren seemed to be living on borrowed time. As for the top three, these are still held by Viola Davis for Ma Rainey, Frances McDormand for Nomadland, and Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman, who, consequently, has lost the wind in her sails of late. All three are practically guaranteed a nomination at this point, but it appears that the winner is likely between Viola Davis and Frances McDormand by a small margin.

Best Director hasn't had any real significant changes since I last wrote about it. I did, however, see at least one interesting development that was worthy of note. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari has surged upwards from being on the outside looking in, to pass up a couple previous directors who held solid spots. He's now sitting at #4 most likely to be nominated and to win. He seemed to have bumped out Regina King for One Night in Miami, Paul Greengrass for News of the World, and Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods who currently holds that #5 spot. Spike is likely to grab a nomination since the Academy loves him so much, and the Netflix campaign is probably pretty strong since he's been Jonesin' for that Best Director Oscar for decades now. However, I would not count out Regina King as her direction is not only worthy of a nomination, but also it's the type of direction that gains the attention of the Academy. Not to mention, it's her feature directorial debut. Moving up to the top of the pack, Chloe Zhao for Nomadland still holds a considerable lead over David Fincher for Mank, while Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7 inexplicably has held steady at #3.

The Best Picture race is another that hasn't changed in a huge way in a long while. However, the bottom of the list has been seeing some newcomers of late. For instance, upon the release of Promising Young Woman, its Best Picture prospects certainly have skyrocketed. It's now shot its way into the top ten, edging out Pixar's Soul, slightly. Now, this does not mean it will be guaranteed a nomination, perse. Yes, the Academy can nominate up to 10 films for Best Picture, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will. In 2018, they nominated eight films while in 2019 they nominated nine. For some unknown, arbitrary reason, the Academy likes to omit that tenth film. Who knows why? Certainly, I will never know. So, what does this mean? Hell if I know. You probably want to know what I think if you're reading this, so, here goes: Promising Young Woman just as easily could be nominated for Best Picture as Pixar's Soul can. But, experts are predicting the timely spin on the revenge thriller has more of a chance than the Pixar animated feature film apparently does. To go even deeper, I think it also has just as much of a chance as Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, and Da 5 Bloods all do. These are all *pretty* close in terms of odds, but some better than others, of course. Do I think it has a shot? Yes. Do I think it will? I have no fucking idea. Same as the next (wo)man. But, I will say, I really freakin' hope it does receive the nomination.